Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x441a…130a crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$226 (+6%) realized +$218 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%89W / 14L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days+$271
14 days+$271
30 days+$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$111
sports 34% +$73
crypto 14% +$2
world 3% +$31
economics 1% −$4
politics 0% +$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.3% +0.7% 85% 35% -0.2%
≤30d 26 +11.3% +0.7% 85% 35% -0.2%
≤90d 26 +11.3% +0.7% 85% 35% -0.2%
all 103 +1.3% -8.4% 86% 14% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 14% -4.0%
10% -17.1% 8% -13.2%
15% -25.1% 6% -21.6%
20% -32.5% 5% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses89 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage597d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 100¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 84¢ 96¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$14 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$15 +7%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$13 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$46 +23%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $200 −$16 -8%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $51 +$26 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $81 +$31 +38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$176 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $50 +$7 +13%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $360 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$19 +19%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $26 −$26 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 21? Feb 23 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 21 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 19? Feb 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 19? Feb 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 26-1? Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 28 Jan 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? Jan 28 $25 $0 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1? Sep 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $107K on August 30 at 4 Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 August 18–24? Aug 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 29-August 4? Aug 22 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 22 $21 −$4 -21%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 20 $21 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $350 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $202 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $200 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $42 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $6 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $202 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $100 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $55 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $84 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $200 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 24h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 97¢ $100 25h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 97¢ $100 25h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $100 25h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 87¢ $184 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $51 29h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $200 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 97¢ $20 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 84¢ $80 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.28 · official $78.28 (match) · 229 history records