Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4417…eae3 crypto 1212 markets active 20h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$355 (-4%) realized −$355 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%654W / 545L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$342
14 days−$233
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$277
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 49% -22.8%
≤30d 981 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 54% -12.3%
≤90d 1199 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 54% -12.4%
all 1199 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 54% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 54% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 54% -20.8%
15% -28.2% 52% -28.4%
20% -35.2% 46% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$355
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses654 / 545
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1199 / 1212
History coverage35d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1199 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$22 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$50 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$21 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$22 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2418 history records