Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4414…28d4
crypto · 512 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$100 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$100 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses433 / 78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)511 / 512
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day211.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 511 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $54 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $58 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 511 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 39% -10.5%
≤30d 511 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 39% -10.5%
≤90d 511 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 39% -10.5%
all 511 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 39% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover211.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 39% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 14% -19.1%
15% -25.9% 6% -26.9%
20% -33.2% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.04 · official $3.31 (match) · 1642 history records