Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:35:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x440e…d53c sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$30 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%49W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$54
14 days+$19
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$92
other 21% +$16
crypto 6% +$4
politics 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
tech 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +16.2% +5.1% 75% 46% -1.9%
≤30d 89 -7.9% -16.7% 55% 42% -12.4%
≤90d 89 -7.9% -16.7% 55% 42% -12.4%
all 89 -7.9% -16.7% 55% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 42% -12.4%
10% -24.7% 34% -20.7%
15% -31.9% 30% -28.4%
20% -38.6% 26% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses49 / 40
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)89 / 95
History coverage30d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 75¢ 75¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Fiona Crawley 49¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Tunisia 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 93¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 71¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24? No 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $10 +$21 +200%
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 24 $30 $0 -1%
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 24 $41 +$4 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$13 +42%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 +$4 +20%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$16 +78%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $31 +$27 +88%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$17 +81%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$19 +91%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 +$15 +74%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 18 $10 +$7 +66%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $91 +$5 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $10 +$12 +116%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$14 +137%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +25%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +126%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$12 +121%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $10 +$16 +154%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$13 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 10 $15 −$10 -66%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 29 $5 +$1 +29%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Fiona Crawley 49¢ $31 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 32¢ $31 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $31 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $30 2h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 95¢ $21 2h
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $30 2h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 58¢ $27 2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $34 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL No 95¢ $44 2h
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $10 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $10 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 2d
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $31 2d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $31 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 87¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $30 3d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 3d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $20 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $31 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 93¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $21 3d
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $20 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.68 · official $166.68 (match) · 178 history records