Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x440d…c76d sports 34 markets active 4d ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-4%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$482
14 days−$189
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$54
other 33% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -58.0% -62.0% 21% 21% -48.2%
≤30d 27 -22.8% -30.2% 37% 37% -19.7%
≤90d 27 -22.8% -30.2% 37% 37% -19.7%
all 34 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 41% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 41% -14.1%
10% -28.7% 38% -22.3%
15% -35.6% 35% -29.8%
20% -41.9% 29% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$41 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage226d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $56 +$55 +99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$33 +82%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$63 +62%
Trail Blazers vs. Heat Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 18 $355 −$137 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Pelicans vs. Spurs Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$61 +149%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $131 +$83 +64%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$21 -21%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 +$43 +139%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$43 +84%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $91 +$44 +49%
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Nov 09 $79 −$48 -61%
Open de Moselle: Cameron Norrie vs Learner Tien Nov 09 $20 +$20 +100%
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Nov 09 $40 +$35 +89%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-08? Nov 09 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Union Berlin vs. Bayern München end in a draw? Nov 08 $132 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 08 $218 +$32 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 07 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 53¢ $18 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $71 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 44¢ $15 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $164 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $101 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $215 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $70 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $61 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $8 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $80 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 7d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 39¢ $20 9d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $20 9d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $73 9d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 41¢ $10 9d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 41¢ $20 9d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) SELL Team Heretics 99¢ $93 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records