Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x440d…80d6 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$2
world 30% −$3
politics 10% +$1
economics 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% −$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -1.1% -10.5% 23% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 21% 0% -10.1%
all 58 -5.1% -14.2% 36% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 7% -9.6%
10% -22.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $31 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $85 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $14 −$2 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $7 +$5 +77%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 24 $7 +$1 +14%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 20 $17 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $17 $0 -1%
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 11 $24 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $9 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 24 $1 $0 +16%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $5 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $28 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $28 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $26 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $28 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $2 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $2 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $5 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $2 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $10 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $6 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $28 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $23 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $28 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records