Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
44 0x4409…cf5b weather 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$117 (+47%) realized +$119 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +139.0% +116.3% 67% 67% +91.0%
≤30d 17 +54.0% +39.4% 53% 53% +52.4%
≤90d 17 +54.0% +39.4% 53% 53% +52.4%
all 17 +54.0% +39.4% 53% 53% +52.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.4% 53% +52.4%
10% +26.0% 53% +37.8%
15% +13.9% 47% +24.5%
20% +2.7% 35% +12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +139% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)17 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 45¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Yes 47¢ 47¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? No 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? No 91¢ 90¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$29 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$69 +665%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$12 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$24 +262%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$5 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 3¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 53¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $27 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 98¢ $33 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? SELL No 50¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 72¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 53¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 7? BUY No 75¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.43 · official $84.32 (match) · 53 history records