Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4409…61f1 world 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%35W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$19
14 days+$12
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$2
other 22% $0
politics 15% $0
sports 9% −$1
economics 2% +$2
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 32 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 76 -1.1% -10.6% 37% 3% -9.5%
all 102 -0.9% -10.3% 34% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 56% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses35 / 67
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage312d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $300 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $93 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $160 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $321 −$2 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $160 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $147 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $148 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $286 +$21 +8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $129 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $129 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $210 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$5 -22%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $132 +$2 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $503 −$2 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $459 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $92 +$3 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $130 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $466 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $319 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $182 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $529 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $129 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $14 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $176 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $256 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $90 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $241 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $142 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $128 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $312 −$17 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $205 −$9 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $156 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $162 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $292 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $168 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $2 $0 +21%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $480 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $468 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $161 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $294 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $160 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $160 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $93 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $93 10h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $160 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $127 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $160 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $160 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $145 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $145 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $62 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $83 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $136 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $11 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $147 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $148 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $39 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $63 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $50 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $113 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 484 history records