Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4402…0599 crypto 1179 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$388 (-4%) realized −$389 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%779W / 399L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day96.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$36
14 days−$93
30 days−$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$422
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -10.3% -18.9% 64% 63% -12.3%
≤30d 1178 -7.7% -16.5% 66% 43% -13.5%
≤90d 1178 -7.7% -16.5% 66% 43% -13.5%
all 1178 -7.7% -16.5% 66% 43% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 43% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 36% -21.8%
15% -31.8% 29% -29.3%
20% -38.5% 17% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$389
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses779 / 399
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1178 / 1179
History coverage25d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day96.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 314 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.05 · official $10.17 (match) · 3248 history records