Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

44 0x4400…9804 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized −$28 · open +$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day18.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+24.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+37.4%	+24.3%	100%	67%	+12.2%
≤30d	3	+37.4%	+24.3%	100%	67%	+12.2%
≤90d	3	+37.4%	+24.3%	100%	67%	+12.2%
all	3	+37.4%	+24.3%	100%	67%	+12.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.3%	67%	+12.2%
10%	+12.4%	67%	+1.4%
15%	+1.5%	67%	-8.4%
20%	-8.4%	33%	-17.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$190

Realized−$28

Unrealized+$31

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)3 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day18.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	No	43¢	52¢	$137	$166	+$29 (+21%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	34¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+20%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	No	66¢	68¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	22¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+13%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	34¢	32¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$2	+$1	+52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$8	+$1	+10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$2	+$1	+49%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	45¢	$2	23m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	46¢	$10	23m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	34¢	$1	27m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	44¢	$5	43m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	44¢	$41	44m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	50m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	43¢	$41	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	43¢	$31	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	66¢	$10	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	41¢	$10	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	94¢	$6	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	88¢	$1	5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$1	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	73¢	$1	5h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$2	6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	100¢	$3	20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	57¢	$1	21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	79¢	$1	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.96 · official $189.96 (match) · 20 history records