Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43ff…7881 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized +$1 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day63.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$5
other 8% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -19.3% -27.0% 57% 35% -18.2%
≤30d 37 -19.3% -27.0% 57% 35% -18.2%
≤90d 37 -19.3% -27.0% 57% 35% -18.2%
all 37 -19.3% -27.0% 57% 35% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 35% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 19% -26.0%
15% -40.4% 5% -33.1%
20% -46.2% 3% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day63.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -92%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 55m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.86 (match) · 131 history records