Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43fe…715b crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+2%) realized +$68 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate87%39W / 6L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$9
14 days+$14
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$57
sports 8% −$11
world 6% −$4
other 5% +$32
economics 4% $0
tech 2% +$1
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.0% -3.2% 67% 67% -7.1%
≤30d 7 +9.7% -0.8% 86% 43% -7.0%
≤90d 17 -1.7% -11.1% 88% 18% -8.7%
all 45 -0.3% -9.8% 87% 18% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 18% -7.9%
10% -18.5% 4% -16.7%
15% -26.3% 2% -24.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses39 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage549d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 60¢ $94 $97 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $136 −$40 -30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $113 +$22 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $87 +$27 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 17 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 11 $80 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? May 26 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 18? May 20 $79 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14? May 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 7? May 11 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 03 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 25? Apr 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 16? Apr 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 10? Apr 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $163 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Mar 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 10? Mar 16 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 5? Mar 08 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 3? Mar 05 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Mar 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Feb 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 31 $81 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29? Jan 31 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? Jan 29 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 7? Jan 22 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 07 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 04 $73 +$5 +7%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Dec 12 $69 +$4 +6%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 19 $59 +$10 +16%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 15 $53 +$7 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Sep 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Aug 02 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 16 $38 +$7 +19%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $33 +$5 +15%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 09 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 05 $29 +$3 +10%
Solana above $190 on February 14? Feb 15 $211 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,250 by January 31, 2025? Feb 11 $208 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? Jan 26 $206 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 18 $209 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? Dec 24 $209 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $95 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $52 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $4 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $29 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $4 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $7 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $136 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $113 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $87 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $71 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $79 37d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $79 42d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $84 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 54d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $83 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 78d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 93d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? SELL No 100¢ $83 93d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $82 102d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $82 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 5? BUY No 99¢ $81 113d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 116d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $81 116d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $81 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.65 · official $95.83 (match) · 103 history records