Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
43 0x43fe…26ee sports 607 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$957 (+2%) realized +$963 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate64%389W / 217L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$427est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days+$181
14 days+$438
30 days+$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$686
other 8% +$73
crypto 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -14.2% -22.4% 59% 47% -4.9%
≤30d 155 +1.4% -8.2% 66% 55% -5.6%
≤90d 472 +5.4% -4.7% 64% 56% -6.0%
all 606 +3.4% -6.5% 64% 54% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 54% -7.1%
10% -15.4% 42% -16.0%
15% -23.6% 32% -24.1%
20% -31.1% 22% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$36 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$963
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses389 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$427
Open positions1
Markets (closed)606 / 607
History coverage147d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 606 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 64¢ 62¢ $178 $173 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $510 −$120 -24%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $49 +$13 +26%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $137 +$16 +12%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $62 −$40 -65%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1,263 +$94 +8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $326 −$11 -3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $325 +$50 +15%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $130 −$57 -44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $60 −$59 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $37 −$36 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $233 +$15 +6%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $244 +$22 +9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $96 +$59 +61%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $44 +$32 +72%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $34 +$6 +18%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $27 +$42 +159%
Osos de Manati vs. Vaqueros de Bayamon Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $180 +$14 +8%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $33 +$18 +53%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $272 +$166 +61%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $31 +$9 +28%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $20 +$10 +49%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 11 $33 +$17 +52%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $170 +$79 +46%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $97 +$26 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $95 −$59 -62%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $31 +$38 +125%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $142 −$36 -25%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $281 +$118 +42%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Japan Jun 10 $2 +$1 +43%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs Nepal Jun 10 $251 +$47 +19%
Elitzur Netanya vs. Ironi Ness Ziona Jun 09 $46 −$23 -50%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $220 −$202 -92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $32 −$12 -36%
Aguada Santeros vs. Osos de Manati Jun 09 $76 +$46 +60%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $43 +$4 +10%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 08 $15 +$1 +10%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 08 $46 +$24 +51%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $149 +$64 +43%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $33 −$26 -81%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 07 $998 +$78 +8%
Will England win? Jun 07 $186 +$14 +7%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 07 $41 −$9 -22%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 07 $56 +$4 +8%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $92 −$51 -56%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $30 −$7 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 67¢ $106 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 65¢ $34 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 55¢ $1 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 55¢ $9 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 55¢ $30 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 59¢ $24 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 68¢ $41 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 72¢ $50 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $234 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $20 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $20 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $20 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $38 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $3 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $1 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $1 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $4 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $2 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $5 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $13 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $1 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 76¢ $23 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 80¢ $65 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 80¢ $32 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 79¢ $79 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 21¢ $21 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 26¢ $27 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 75¢ $151 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 75¢ $19 19h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 95¢ $62 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.78 · official $160.14 · 3015 history records