Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:11:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43f8…12ea politics 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$10
other 24% −$4
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 11% 0% -9.4%
all 83 -1.7% -11.1% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage636d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 08 $56 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jacob deGrom win the 2025 AL Cy Young? Nov 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will RB Leipzig win the Bundesliga? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine election scheduled in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
UK civil war in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Macron out as president of France in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jared Goff win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Doug Burgum confirmed as Secretary of the Interior? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 09 $0 $0 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the Western Conference? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Justin Jefferson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Israel military strike against Iran in November? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 14h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 25d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 37d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $55 40d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $54 41d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 47d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $56 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 70d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 82d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 83d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 89d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $4 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 91d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records