Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x43f7…35e5 other 571 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,375 (+4%) realized +$9,058 · open −$683
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate77%425W / 130L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$9,165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$669
7 days+$808
14 days+$800
30 days+$1,793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$5,734
world 16% −$193
politics 9% +$1,230
finance 5% +$846
tech 3% +$584
economics 2% +$430
weather 2% −$604
crypto 2% +$61
culture 1% +$42
sports 1% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +60.0% +44.8% 91% 45% +2.2%
≤30d 39 +25.5% +13.5% 90% 31% -3.7%
≤90d 174 +4.9% -5.1% 79% 26% -5.4%
all 555 +7.7% -2.6% 77% 26% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 26% -5.3%
10% -11.9% 16% -14.4%
15% -20.4% 11% -22.7%
20% -28.2% 8% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$55 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$9,165
Realized+$9,058
Unrealized−$683
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses425 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions16
Markets (closed)555 / 571
History coverage620d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $5,195 $5,118 −$78 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $554 $751 +$197 (+35%)
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $667 $707 +$40 (+6%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals No 98¢ 97¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? No 90¢ 97¢ $434 $464 +$29 (+7%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 25 be between 85 and 90? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $400 $392 −$8 (-2%)
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $255 $271 +$16 (+6%)
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? Yes 71¢ 16¢ $1,150 $252 −$898 (-78%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals No 87¢ 86¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $162 $174 +$12 (+7%)
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $132 $132 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $113 −$7 (-6%)
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ $8 $43 +$35 (+469%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $33 $27 −$6 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $33 $25 −$8 (-23%)
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $8.00 on June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be betwe Jun 26 $924 +$21 +2%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $49 +$21 +44%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $34 +$26 +76%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $46 +$14 +31%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Jun 25 $37 +$209 +565%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 25 $1,788 +$381 +21%
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $425 +$18 +4%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe Jun 22 $1,661 +$13 +1%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 22 $185 +$13 +7%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 21 $1,069 +$95 +9%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? Jun 19 $662 +$46 +7%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? Jun 19 $415 +$21 +5%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $191 −$7 -4%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 16 $503 +$56 +11%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $447 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Jun 16 $496 +$27 +5%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 15 $1,654 +$76 +5%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $450 −$257 -57%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $377 +$19 +5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $107 +$12 +11%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe Jun 12 $860 +$7 +1%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? Jun 10 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May? Jun 10 $126 +$4 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 09 $3,180 +$199 +6%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 08 $58 +$10 +18%
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $21 +$10 +49%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 06 $157 +$277 +177%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 21 be betwe Jun 05 $278 +$3 +1%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 21 be betwe Jun 05 $990 +$10 +1%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 04 $1,786 +$14 +1%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 03 $350 +$91 +26%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $960 +$68 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $3,692 +$154 +4%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 01 $2,395 +$80 +3%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 20 be betwe May 30 $1,188 +$12 +1%
Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? May 28 $128 +$52 +40%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? May 25 $300 −$165 -55%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be betwe May 22 $1,386 +$27 +2%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be betwe May 22 $1,635 +$60 +4%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $275 +$233 +85%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 20 $140 −$136 -97%
ECB rate cut in 2026? May 20 $58 −$20 -35%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 19 $400 +$29 +7%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 18 $684 +$4 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 18 be betwe May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $133 41m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $201 54m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $500 57m
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 25 be betwe BUY Yes 97¢ $401 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 21h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $34 21h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $46 21h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $49 21h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $252 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 3d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $42 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $190 3d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $494 3d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be betwe BUY Yes 98¢ $924 3d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe SELL Yes 100¢ $787 4d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe SELL Yes 100¢ $184 4d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe SELL Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe SELL Yes 100¢ $591 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 4d
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 4d
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? SELL Yes 44¢ $23 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $176 4d
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $176 4d
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 93¢ $33 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $317 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $360 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $43 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $123 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $64 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,164.59 · official $9,164.59 (match) · 2816 history records