Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43f6…ee3e other 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,239 (-17%) realized −$2,051 · open −$1,188
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate73%107W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$440
7 days−$2,124
14 days−$1,968
30 days−$1,968
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$864
sports 30% −$1,260
crypto 21% −$75
world 8% −$1,089
weather 4% −$145
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -12.4% -20.7% 72% 4% -30.9%
≤30d 125 -8.8% -17.5% 77% 12% -20.8%
≤90d 125 -8.8% -17.5% 77% 12% -20.8%
all 147 -10.6% -19.1% 73% 14% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 14% -21.0%
10% -26.8% 12% -28.6%
15% -33.9% 10% -35.5%
20% -40.4% 7% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$110 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$522
Realized−$2,051
Unrealized−$1,188
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses107 / 40
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions7
Markets (closed)147 / 154
History coverage131d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $1,110 $21 −$1,089 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $203 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $186 +$287 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $120 −$115 -96%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $200 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $200 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 15 $200 −$1 -1%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $6 +$4 +73%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $200 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $200 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $200 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $200 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$55 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $355 −$347 -98%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 3 - 3 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $766 −$750 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $328 −$320 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Audax CS Italiano 0 - 3 CD La Serena? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $101 +$95 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 3 - 3 CR Brasil? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: COD Meknès 3 - 3 RCA Zemamra? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Difaâ Hassani El Jadida 3 - 2 Olympic Dcheira? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 46¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 100¢ $200 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $54 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $407 42h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $199 42h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? SELL No 99¢ $199 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $398 43h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $199 43h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $199 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $200 43h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL No 99¢ $200 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $41 43h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 43h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 57¢ $6 43h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? SELL No 99¢ $200 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.01 · official $521.95 (match) · 322 history records