Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x43f5…8932 sports 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-2%) realized −$33 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%109W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$25
14 days−$3
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$103
other 26% +$22
world 18% −$61
finance 12% +$45
crypto 4% −$23
politics 2% +$42
tech 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.6% -26.4% 45% 45% -27.1%
≤30d 52 -25.1% -32.3% 38% 37% -15.8%
≤90d 131 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 47% -8.0%
all 236 -9.7% -18.3% 46% 44% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 44% -10.9%
10% -26.1% 44% -19.4%
15% -33.2% 42% -27.2%
20% -39.8% 38% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses109 / 127
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)236 / 245
History coverage626d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 48¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 36¢ 12¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-65%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 54¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $6 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 9¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +108%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 13 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +74%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +64%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +83%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$8 +77%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +19%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$4 +90%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 09 $4 +$4 +101%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Cobolli vs. Tien: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 08 $28 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -72%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $44 +$22 +50%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $30 +$22 +73%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 May 30 $6 +$4 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong May 27 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 27 $3 +$2 +83%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 27 $3 +$3 +93%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? May 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Sharks vs. Predators May 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Rangers vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5 May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $48 +$104 +217%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 May 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $3 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $3 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 57¢ $5 14h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $5 25h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $5 25h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Wil BUY 6¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY 14¢ $4 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $7 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 60¢ $10 5d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 57¢ $10 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 92¢ $5 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 6d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $9 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? SELL No 82¢ $4 6d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 47¢ $3 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 68¢ $3 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 7d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $4 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? SELL Up 100¢ $6 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 89¢ $5 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.14 · official $14.14 (match) · 559 history records