Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43f4…ff3d other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$4
other 25% −$2
weather 4% −$3
politics 4% +$1
finance 2% $0
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 22% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 0% -8.9%
all 43 -2.1% -11.4% 42% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage476d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $6 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $28 +$1 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $81 +$4 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $85 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $45 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $26 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $22 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 23 $6 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 04 $9 $0 +4%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $4 −$2 -46%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 16 $2 −$1 -36%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 20 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 14? Mar 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5? Mar 04 $15 −$3 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $50 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $42 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $42 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $51 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $16 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $30 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $15 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $21 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $28 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $46 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $39 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.40 · official $50.40 (match) · 150 history records