Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x43ec…afef crypto 431 markets active 3h ago coverage 573d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31,670 (-3%) realized −$31,934 · open +$264
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate77%327W / 100L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,389per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$954
30 days+$3,876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$25,260
world 13% +$4,556
other 0% +$126
sports 0% −$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +17.2% +6.1% 62% 50% -1.3%
≤30d 20 +4.2% -5.8% 60% 35% -3.7%
≤90d 68 +1.3% -8.4% 84% 21% -4.6%
all 427 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 26% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 26% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 17% -20.0%
15% -27.9% 11% -27.7%
20% -35.0% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,313) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$1,017 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

573d coverage
Net worth$2,825
Realized−$31,934
Unrealized+$264
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses327 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)427 / 431
History coverage573d
Avg bet$2,389
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 5¢ 6¢ $2,400 $2,682 +$282 (+12%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-20%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $29,200 +$949 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20,001 +$2,290 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $201 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 26 $503 −$503 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 26 $210 +$106 +51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $10,000 +$1,046 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $500 −$26 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 05 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 04 $379 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 04 $308 +$161 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 04 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 04 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 04 $202 +$29 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 04 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 30 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 23 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 23 $227 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 22 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 22 $502 −$502 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 22 $494 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 22 $444 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 22 $455 +$39 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 22 $411 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 22 $412 +$32 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 21 $403 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 21 $399 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 21 $396 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 21 $388 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 21 $272 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 21 $275 +$114 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 20 $204 +$68 +33%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $2,658 +$46 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 25 $500 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 24 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 24 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 24 $200 +$10 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1,000 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $400 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1,000 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $19,387 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $19,000 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $40 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $19,040 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $8,000 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $7,739 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $15,558 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 27h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $100 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30,000 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7,000 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $89 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,200 9d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10,000 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,824.73 · official $2,824.73 (match) · 1842 history records