Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x43ec…f76d crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%41W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$6
crypto 11% +$2
other 4% −$4
tech 2% $0
sports 1% −$8
world 1% −$13
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 54 -2.8% -12.0% 76% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses41 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage555d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in March? Apr 02 $55 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? Feb 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 03 $63 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $52 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 04 $31 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 04 $24 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 17 $5,748 −$6 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Mar 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $440b on February 28? Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $35 +$2 +7%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 07 $14 $0 +2%
Will Christian Lindner be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 06 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 04 $21 −$4 -17%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 04 $23 −$4 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $19 61d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $53 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 92d
Will BNB reach $800 in March? BUY No 99¢ $55 93d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $27 120d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 151d
Will BNB dip to $600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 151d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 151d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 180d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $66 182d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $13 210d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $63 211d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $11 240d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 242d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 271d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 274d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $44 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $52 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.86 · official $68.86 (match) · 119 history records