Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x43e7…1f62 sports 300 markets active 2h ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$541 (+3%) realized +$520 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%143W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,663
7 days+$1,663
14 days+$1,663
30 days+$1,663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$426
other 3% −$12
crypto 2% +$22
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +169.1% +143.5% 25% 25% +730.3%
≤30d 4 +169.1% +143.5% 25% 25% +730.3%
≤90d 4 +169.1% +143.5% 25% 25% +730.3%
all 295 -1.5% -10.8% 48% 48% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 48% -7.5%
10% -19.4% 48% -16.4%
15% -27.2% 47% -24.5%
20% -34.3% 44% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +818% too few recent
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$64 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$520
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses143 / 152
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)295 / 300
History coverage314d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $173 +$1,693 +976%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Dec 23 $67 +$33 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 23 $100 +$84 +84%
Spread: Ducks (-1.5) Dec 23 $20 +$13 +64%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Dec 23 $20 +$21 +104%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Dec 23 $40 +$22 +56%
Blue Jackets vs. Kings Dec 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Blues vs. Lightning Dec 23 $20 +$9 +43%
Canucks vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 Dec 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Flyers (-1.5) Dec 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Canucks vs. Flyers Dec 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Blues vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 Dec 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Kraken vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Dec 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Kraken vs. Ducks Dec 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 Dec 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Senators vs. Bruins Dec 22 $50 +$38 +75%
Canadiens vs. Penguins Dec 22 $50 +$46 +92%
Sabres vs. Devils Dec 22 $50 +$64 +127%
Jets vs. Utah Dec 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Dec 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Rangers vs. Predators Dec 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Stars Dec 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Dec 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Capitals vs. Red Wings Dec 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Ducks Dec 21 $244 +$198 +81%
Kraken vs. Sharks Dec 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Flames Dec 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Predators Dec 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Penguins vs. Canadiens Dec 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Lightning Dec 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Canucks vs. Bruins Dec 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Flames vs. Sharks Dec 17 $100 +$127 +127%
Oilers vs. Penguins Dec 17 $100 +$73 +73%
Utah vs. Bruins Dec 17 $100 +$92 +92%
Canucks vs. Rangers Dec 17 $100 +$108 +108%
Flyers vs. Canadiens Dec 17 $100 +$113 +112%
Ducks vs. Penguins Dec 17 $1 +$1 +108%
Capitals vs. Wild Dec 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Islanders vs. Red Wings Dec 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning Dec 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 09 $90 −$70 -78%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Wild vs. Kraken Dec 09 $100 +$75 +75%
Red Wings vs. Canucks Dec 09 $100 +$89 +89%
Kings vs. Utah Dec 09 $100 +$96 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Gha BUY $17 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 12h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $67 175d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $184 175d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $100 175d
Blue Jackets vs. Kings BUY Kings 21¢ $28 176d
Blues vs. Lightning SELL Lightning 100¢ $29 176d
Canucks vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 176d
Spread: Flyers (-1.5) BUY Canucks 69¢ $10 176d
Canucks vs. Flyers BUY Canucks 46¢ $25 176d
Blues vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 176d
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) BUY Lightning 49¢ $20 176d
Blues vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 70¢ $20 176d
Kraken vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 176d
Spread: Ducks (-1.5) BUY Kraken 61¢ $20 176d
Kraken vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 61¢ $40 176d
Blue Jackets vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $40 176d
Spread: Kings (-1.5) BUY Blue Jackets 64¢ $40 176d
Blue Jackets vs. Kings BUY Kings 59¢ $40 176d
Jets vs. Utah BUY Jets 48¢ $42 177d
Golden Knights vs. Oilers BUY Golden Knights 45¢ $50 177d
Sabres vs. Devils BUY Sabres 44¢ $50 177d
Rangers vs. Predators BUY Rangers 52¢ $50 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.79 · official $332.08 · 582 history records