Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43e2…5fbd
world · 346 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$1,882 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,632 · open +$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,377
Realized+$1,632
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses156 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)342 / 346
History coverage91d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 4 History 342 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$295
7 days+$298
14 days+$294
30 days+$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $959 $980 +$21 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $368 $394 +$26 (+7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+77%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 1¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in May 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down on June 6? Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? No 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $725 +$33 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $347 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $76 −$3 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $401 −$4 -1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 −$1 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $747 −$40 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $400 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $90 +$5 +6%
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $72 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $105 −$18 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,429 +$366 +26%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 11 $280 −$35 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $13 −$3 -24%
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $79 −$3 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$6 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 10 $12 −$1 -12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $693 −$52 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 09 $113 −$9 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $40 −$4 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $400 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$2 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 08 $81 +$8 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $551 +$7 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $128 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $39 +$5 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $19 −$5 -25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,173 +$33 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $101 −$12 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $20 −$3 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $110 +$19 +17%
BNB Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $35 −$10 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $49 +$8 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $29 +$13 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$4 -73%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$4 +84%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 05 $32 −$2 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $196 −$5 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $140 −$4 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% +$1,058
finance 35% +$714
other 7% +$125
crypto 4% −$59
tech 2% +$21
politics 2% −$171
sports 1% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $39 24m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $39 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 92¢ $368 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL Yes 98¢ $351 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 72¢ $144 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $212 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 98¢ $195 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $33 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $152 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $36 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 95¢ $198 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $53 6h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 9¢ $1 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $39 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $164 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $78 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $78 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $164 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 96¢ $198 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL Yes 99¢ $398 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $40 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 11h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 22¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -3.4% -12.6% 36% 17% -6.3%
≤30d 110 -3.1% -12.4% 39% 15% -7.7%
≤90d 342 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 19% -7.3%
all 342 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 19% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 19% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 12% -16.2%
15% -26.8% 10% -24.3%
20% -34.0% 8% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,377.10 · official $1,377.10 (match) · 3500 history records