Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
43 0x43e2…43a6 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$184 (+31%) realized +$178 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$154
other 17% +$33
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.7% -1.7% 45% 45% +37.1%
≤30d 11 +8.7% -1.7% 45% 45% +37.1%
≤90d 11 +8.7% -1.7% 45% 45% +37.1%
all 11 +8.7% -1.7% 45% 45% +37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 45% +37.1%
10% -11.1% 45% +24.0%
15% -19.7% 45% +12.0%
20% -27.5% 45% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$16 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 50¢ 54¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$105 +342%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $121 +$63 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $0 $0 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$31 +101%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$52 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $61 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $81 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $30 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 91¢ $151 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $81 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $20 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $40 14h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 84¢ $23 34h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 85¢ $24 34h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 83¢ $46 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 36h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $41 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 38h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $30 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.74 · official $245.74 (match) · 25 history records