Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x43e0…8618 sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,228 (+4%) realized +$1,126 · open +$102
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%41W / 23L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$1,771
14 days+$1,282
30 days+$1,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$506
other 39% +$1,315
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.0% +2.3% 90% 70% +1.2%
≤30d 25 -12.1% -20.5% 68% 52% -4.5%
≤90d 64 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 53% -7.2%
all 64 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 53% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 53% -7.2%
10% -25.9% 42% -16.1%
15% -33.1% 22% -24.2%
20% -39.6% 17% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$594) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$213 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$662
Realized+$1,126
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses41 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage76d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 97¢ $560 $662 +$102 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,977 +$144 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,159 +$158 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,580 +$278 +11%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,187 +$564 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $738 +$88 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,273 +$218 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,374 −$374 -27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $696 +$178 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $994 +$241 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $594 +$758 +128%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $143 −$140 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $51 −$50 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $168 −$164 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $485 −$475 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $755 −$50 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $20 +$5 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $380 −$374 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 03 $371 +$90 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $483 +$103 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $151 +$46 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $613 −$602 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $1,552 +$149 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $61 +$5 +8%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $288 +$53 +18%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $389 −$384 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $765 +$455 +60%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $33 +$5 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $504 +$326 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $705 −$700 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $330 +$346 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $205 −$200 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $306 +$558 +182%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $452 +$43 +10%
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire May 15 $377 +$89 +24%
Chicago Sky vs. Golden State Valkyries May 14 $384 −$378 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $661 +$42 +6%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $532 +$18 +3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $21 −$20 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $23 −$22 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $19 +$6 +29%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $227 −$223 -98%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $171 +$55 +32%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $141 +$50 +36%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 03 $459 −$458 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $208 +$64 +31%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $152 +$36 +24%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $244 +$63 +26%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 23 $13 +$7 +55%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $563 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $1,977 40h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $2,159 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $2,580 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $2,187 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $1,273 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $738 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $16 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $3 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $0 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $13 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $5 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $9 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje $9 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 65¢ $1,314 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 78¢ $1,007 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $994 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $357 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 20¢ $87 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $507 8d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad $12 12d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 16¢ $131 12d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty BUY Indiana Fever $15 12d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty BUY Indiana Fever $36 12d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Edmen Shahbazyan 10¢ $168 12d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Farés Ziam 16¢ $77 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.17 · official $656.70 (match) · 160 history records