Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x43e0…1caf other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+1%) realized +$271 · open −$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate75%62W / 21L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 47% +$85
other 46% −$95
world 4% +$21
politics 2% +$22
crypto 1% +$4
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 11 +1.5% -8.2% 82% 36% -1.8%
≤90d 26 -32.9% -39.3% 54% 23% -7.2%
all 83 +2.6% -7.2% 75% 48% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 48% -5.7%
10% -16.0% 27% -14.7%
15% -24.2% 14% -23.0%
20% -31.6% 10% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$488
Realized+$271
Unrealized−$178
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses62 / 21
Open positions7
Markets (closed)83 / 90
History coverage254d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $250 $243 −$7 (-3%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $142 $146 +$4 (+3%)
Grok 4.4 released by July 31? Yes 69¢ 46¢ $69 $46 −$23 (-33%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 66¢ 18¢ $66 $18 −$48 (-73%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Yes 60¢ 8¢ $107 $15 −$92 (-86%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 81¢ 50¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-38%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 75¢ 50¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 14 $184 −$4 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $49 +$3 +6%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 12 $62 +$1 +2%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 03 $56 +$12 +21%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? May 31 $87 +$12 +14%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 28 $0 $0 -62%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $509 +$76 +15%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $17 +$3 +18%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 19 $39 +$1 +3%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? May 11 $224 −$26 -12%
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? May 11 $50 +$5 +11%
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? Apr 04 $200 +$2 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Apr 03 $13 −$13 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Apr 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Apr 03 $77 +$14 +18%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $141 +$9 +6%
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? Apr 03 $193 +$7 +3%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $729 +$27 +4%
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? Mar 08 $100 +$17 +16%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Exam? Mar 08 $134 +$16 +12%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $100 +$15 +15%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Feb 27 $46 −$46 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Feb 27 $18 −$7 -40%
Natural Disaster in 2026? Feb 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? Feb 18 $35 −$19 -54%
Grok 4.20 released by April 20? Feb 18 $47 +$3 +7%
Grok 4.20 released by February 28? Feb 18 $94 +$6 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 18 $42 +$5 +11%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Feb 17 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Feb 17 $120 +$22 +19%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? Feb 12 $157 −$42 -27%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 08 $61 +$17 +28%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 05 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $36 +$4 +11%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $43 +$7 +16%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Feb 05 $63 +$17 +26%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Feb 05 $393 +$7 +2%
Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported? Jan 28 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jan 27 $61 +$16 +26%
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31? Jan 10 $2 +$3 +127%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Jan 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $252 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 84¢ $81 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 84¢ $5 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 84¢ $5 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 84¢ $7 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 84¢ $7 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 84¢ $1 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 84¢ $20 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 46¢ $180 3d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $67 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 45¢ $184 4d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $142 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 75¢ $119 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 73¢ $111 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $125 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $123 5d
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 5d
Grok 4.4 released by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $77 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $64 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $70 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $92 11d
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $109 12d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $68 14d
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? SELL No 99¢ $99 17d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20d
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 21d
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $11 21d
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.39 · official $488.39 (match) · 215 history records