Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43df…c302 politics 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$21
world 2% −$1
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 22 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -5.5% -14.5% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage135d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $219 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1 $0 -19%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,886 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $399 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $451 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,550 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $388 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 06 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $1,988 −$2 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $3 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 7h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 13h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 15h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 31h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 32h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 34h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 34h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 37h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 37h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 39h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 41h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 42h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 44h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 45h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 47h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 47h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 2d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 2d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 2d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records