Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

43 0x43de…6ea1 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized +$24 · open −$29

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-26.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	6	-18.4%	-26.2%	50%	33%	-17.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.2%	33%	-17.1%
10%	-33.3%	17%	-25.0%
15%	-39.7%	17%	-32.3%
20%	-45.6%	17%	-38.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized+$24

Unrealized−$29

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage92d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	38¢	$68	$39	−$29 (-43%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22?	Mar 22	$16	+$8	+51%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?	Mar 22	$13	−$1	-6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	Mar 22	$9	$0	+1%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21?	Mar 21	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21?	Mar 21	$4	$0	+11%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?	Mar 21	$10	−$7	-68%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$69	1h
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$24	90d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22?	BUY Yes	73¢	$13	90d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?	SELL Yes	48¢	$12	90d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?	BUY Yes	50¢	$9	90d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	SELL Yes	72¢	$9	90d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?	BUY Yes	53¢	$4	90d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22?	BUY Yes	47¢	$3	90d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4	91d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?	SELL Yes	20¢	$3	91d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$4	91d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21?	BUY Yes	27¢	$1	91d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	91d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	91d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21?	BUY Yes	44¢	$5	91d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$9	92d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.64 · official $38.64 (match) · 17 history records