Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
43 0x43dc…37f1 sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$258 (-4%) realized −$256 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%49W / 44L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$1,134
14 days+$1,118
30 days+$1,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,027
other 24% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +18.3% +7.1% 55% 55% +16.2%
≤30d 93 +11.5% +0.9% 53% 52% +9.2%
≤90d 93 +11.5% +0.9% 53% 52% +9.2%
all 93 +11.5% +0.9% 53% 52% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 52% +9.2%
10% -8.8% 49% -1.3%
15% -17.6% 49% -10.8%
20% -25.7% 47% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$38 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized−$256
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses49 / 44
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions4
Markets (closed)93 / 105
History coverage9d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Choinski (+1.5) Fritz 62¢ 60¢ $146 $142 −$4 (-2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Gabriel Diallo 59¢ 62¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 62¢ 64¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Shelbayh (+1.5) Dimitrov 62¢ 60¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win on Jun 24 $102 +$121 +118%
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Caleb Wilson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $50 +$22 +43%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$1 -4%
Ali Olwan: 2+ shots AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $74 +$64 +86%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $103 +$90 +88%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$14 +57%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 +$19 +73%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$16 +102%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) Jun 22 $92 −$91 -99%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $15 +$15 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $85 +$18 +21%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 +$37 +146%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $414 +$449 +108%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $195 +$126 +64%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$20 +79%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $282 +$211 +75%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$19 -75%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $143 −$140 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 −$26 -27%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$93 +92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $47 +$56 +118%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$8 -4%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$3 -6%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $69 +$41 +59%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$53 +209%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +76%
Raphinha: 1+ assists Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 4.5 Corners AND Will Un Jun 19 $25 +$29 +114%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 +$19 +74%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $25 +$20 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 19 $76 +$41 +54%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$29 +114%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $51 +$47 +93%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $25 +$24 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Choinski (+1.5) BUY Fritz 62¢ $122 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $25 1h
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Shelbayh (+1.5) BUY Dimitrov 62¢ $25 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 59¢ $25 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Choinski (+1.5) BUY Fritz 62¢ $25 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Colombia win on BUY 45¢ $102 6h
Yoane Wissa: 2+ shots AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 43¢ $83 9h
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 9h
Will Caleb Wilson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 9h
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY 40¢ $51 9h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY 52¢ $74 15h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 100¢ $72 15h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portug BUY 61¢ $92 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 55¢ $51 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 69¢ $50 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $24 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $24 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 26h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 26h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06 BUY 53¢ $103 28h
Ali Olwan: 2+ shots AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 53¢ $74 30h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $31 31h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 57¢ $92 33h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 98¢ $31 33h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $25 34h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $15 34h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 34h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $85 35h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.20 · official $299.91 · 189 history records