Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x43d9…d916 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-8%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$31
other 28% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 32 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -16.9%
10% -23.3% 0% -24.8%
15% -30.8% 0% -32.1%
20% -37.5% 0% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage547d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Aug 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $6 $0 -0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? May 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $6 $0 -0%
Kraken vs. Golden Knights Apr 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 16 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 21d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 21d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 49d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 49d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 114d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 114d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 143d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 143d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 173d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 173d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 92¢ $5 201d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 201d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 233d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 233d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 256d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 256d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 270d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 270d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $5 307d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $5 307d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 307d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 307d
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 308d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 331d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 331d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 338d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 338d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 342d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records