Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43d8…18ef other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$445 (-61%) realized −$444 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$168
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$440
other 23% −$3
culture 4% −$2
tech 4% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -66.3% -69.5% 33% 0% -96.0%
≤90d 10 -29.4% -36.1% 70% 0% -86.6%
all 16 -30.8% -37.4% 69% 0% -77.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 0% -77.4%
10% -43.4% 0% -79.6%
15% -48.8% 0% -81.5%
20% -53.8% 0% -83.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$89 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$444
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage169d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $131 $130 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $170 −$168 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $91 −$89 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 21 $185 −$183 -99%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Mar 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will With Heaven on Top by Zach Bryan be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 9? Jan 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 06 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $133 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $170 9d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $91 28d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 60¢ $185 57d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $7 84d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 91d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? BUY No 99¢ $12 101d
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 106d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $9 114d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $12 129d
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 BUY Yes 99¢ $9 140d
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? BUY No 99¢ $13 141d
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 BUY Yes 99¢ $2 141d
Will With Heaven on Top by Zach Bryan be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo BUY No $1 149d
Will With Heaven on Top by Zach Bryan be the Billboard 200 #1 album fo BUY No $1 149d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil BUY No $2 149d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil BUY No $0 149d
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 156d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 163d
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 163d
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.67 · official $129.67 (match) · 31 history records