Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43d7…c453
other · 242 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$331 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$72 · open −$274
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,145
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$274
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses139 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions8
Markets (closed)233 / 242
History coverage39d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day84.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%
Chart Positions 8 History 233 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days−$261
14 days−$71
30 days−$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $500 $850 +$350 (+70%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $370 $387 +$18 (+5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 70¢ 100¢ $210 $300 +$90 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $208 $199 −$9 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $174 $151 −$23 (-13%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $500 $150 −$350 (-70%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 72¢ 69¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 78¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $191 +$109 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $244 −$76 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $472 +$21 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3,205 +$181 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $363 +$36 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $546 −$35 -6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $70 +$13 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $354 −$52 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $406 −$26 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,485 −$42 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $430 +$70 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $157 −$156 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $75 −$39 -53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $55 +$14 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2,580 +$19 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $119 +$27 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $67 +$31 +46%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $44 −$4 -9%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $34 +$14 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $447 +$67 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $624 +$43 +7%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $185 +$73 +40%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $34 +$4 +12%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $170 +$55 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,173 −$35 -2%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $97 +$38 +39%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $888 +$20 +2%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $141 +$59 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $6,026 +$71 +1%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $62 −$30 -48%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $185 +$58 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,748 +$39 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $81 +$7 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,088 +$71 +7%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $52 +$18 +34%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $230 +$28 +12%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $47 −$30 -64%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $394 +$74 +19%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $161 +$19 +12%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $183 −$123 -67%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $50 +$14 +27%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $218 −$218 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $388 +$112 +29%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $35 −$34 -97%
Singapore vs. China PR: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Belarus vs. Syria: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $306 −$117 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% +$275
sports 8% −$392
tech 1% +$36
politics 1% −$350
crypto 1% +$224
world 0% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $70 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 70¢ $212 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 57¢ $169 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $191 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $28 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $32 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $19 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $85 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $11 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $44 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $244 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $157 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $18 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $8 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $36 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $36 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -5.9% -14.9% 62% 45% -10.3%
≤30d 218 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 45% -10.0%
≤90d 233 -1.8% -11.2% 60% 44% -9.6%
all 233 -1.8% -11.2% 60% 44% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover84.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 44% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 32% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 20% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,145.19 · official $2,150.20 (match) · 3500 history records