Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x43d7…dca3 sports 383 markets active 1h ago coverage 678d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,395 (+8%) realized +$8,004 · open −$609
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%160W / 198L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$882
14 days+$624
30 days+$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$269
politics 24% +$13,017
other 13% −$5,692
world 0% −$108
economics 0% −$160
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +121.5% +100.4% 50% 50% +85.0%
≤30d 33 +6.5% -3.6% 27% 27% +1.6%
≤90d 57 -11.1% -19.5% 30% 30% -13.0%
all 358 -6.0% -15.0% 45% 44% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 44% -1.4%
10% -23.1% 44% -10.9%
15% -30.5% 44% -19.5%
20% -37.3% 44% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +60% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$208 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

678d coverage
Net worth$1,681
Realized+$8,004
Unrealized−$609
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses160 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions19
Markets (closed)358 / 383
History coverage678d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 90¢ $150 $306 +$156 (+104%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 36¢ $150 $184 +$34 (+22%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 30¢ $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 29¢ 28¢ $160 $157 −$3 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 26¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $420 $95 −$325 (-77%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 17¢ 16¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 32¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $25 $43 +$18 (+72%)
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $55 $35 −$20 (-36%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $40 $26 −$14 (-35%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 6¢ $125 $23 −$102 (-81%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 4¢ $100 $18 −$82 (-82%)
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $153 +$331 +216%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 +$731 +712%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $127 −$125 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $128 +$251 +197%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $229 +$307 +134%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $77 +$459 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $230 +$895 +388%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $128 −$125 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $77 −$6 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $353 −$348 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 12 $284 +$254 +90%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 03 $280 +$251 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 25 $284 −$280 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 20 $341 −$336 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 19 $315 −$310 -98%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $300 +$325 +108%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 19 $353 +$304 +86%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 22 $213 +$150 +70%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 22 $213 −$213 -100%
Spread: Auburn Tigers (-7.5) Apr 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 131.5 Apr 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-1.5) Apr 22 $560 −$560 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 22 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $77 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $153 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 29¢ $163 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21 BUY 2¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21 BUY 2¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21 BUY 6¢ $21 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $204 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21 BUY 3¢ $26 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 4¢ $31 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 9¢ $51 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $51 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $102 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $127 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 12¢ $41 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $153 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $41 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 12¢ $103 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $77 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $204 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $133 8d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $204 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $154 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $204 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $128 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,681.46 · official $1,680.86 (match) · 1033 history records