Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43d4…e7be other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$40
sports 26% −$25
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$12
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage137d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $291 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $426 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $381 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $279 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $415 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $432 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $402 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $746 −$4 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $133 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $211 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $463 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $220 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $213 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $726 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $213 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 6h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 7h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 8h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 9h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 16h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 17h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 25h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 27h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 28h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 29h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 32h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 37h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 39h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 41h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 42h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1372 history records