Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43d4…4682 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$116 (-34%) realized −$114 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$95
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$43
other 36% −$69
crypto 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-66.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -57.6% -61.6% 19% 15% -44.3%
≤30d 27 -59.2% -63.1% 19% 15% -47.5%
≤90d 27 -59.2% -63.1% 19% 15% -47.5%
all 33 -62.6% -66.2% 18% 15% -48.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.2% 15% -48.4%
10% -69.4% 15% -53.4%
15% -72.4% 12% -57.9%
20% -75.1% 12% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 42
History coverage104d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 40¢ 32¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Argentina 7¢ 7¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Under 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) Argentina 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+183%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $17 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $7 +$12 +180%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$15 +100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 −$6 -91%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $27 −$20 -75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 +$33 +106%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 10 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 11¢ $3 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 20¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $34 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $1 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $12 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Argentina 0¢ $0 6h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 7¢ $3 7h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $12 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 19¢ $1 36h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $6 36h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 14¢ $5 36h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 36h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 36h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 18¢ $8 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 19¢ $5 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $15 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $10 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.27 · official $69.27 · 61 history records