Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43d2…d3fa crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (538 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$32,192 (+203%) realized +$32,229 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate57%38W / 29L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day537.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$551
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (538 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 13% -6.4%
≤30d 67 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 13% -6.4%
≤90d 67 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 13% -6.4%
all 67 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 13% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover537.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 13% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 6% -15.4%
15% -31.0% 4% -23.6%
20% -37.8% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
56.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$32,229
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses38 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 60
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$264
Trades / day537.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 74¢ 92¢ $175 $217 +$42 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 22¢ 8¢ $55 $21 −$34 (-62%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 67¢ 86¢ $14 $19 +$4 (+29%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 25¢ 14¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-46%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $257 −$15 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $673 +$13 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$4 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $130 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $542 −$14 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $244 +$29 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $317 −$27 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $167 +$10 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $247 −$9 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $153 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $529 −$14 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $537 +$5 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $440 −$6 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $118 +$3 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $162 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $481 +$42 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $339 +$11 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $80 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $698 −$17 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $88 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $434 +$22 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $141 −$9 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $236 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $817 −$21 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $797 −$16 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $167 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $537 +$11 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $317 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $608 −$50 -8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $175 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $188 +$55 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $130 +$13 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$9 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $23 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $14 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.24 · official $269.07 · 3500 history records