Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

43 0x43d1…a942 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$47 (-6%) realized −$47 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate41%12W / 17L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day8.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-29.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	29	-22.3%	-29.7%	41%	24%	-17.3%
≤30d	29	-22.3%	-29.7%	41%	24%	-17.3%
≤90d	29	-22.3%	-29.7%	41%	24%	-17.3%
all	29	-22.3%	-29.7%	41%	24%	-17.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.7%	24%	-17.3%
10%	-36.5%	24%	-25.2%
15%	-42.6%	10%	-32.4%
20%	-48.2%	10%	-39.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

42% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -70% → late +22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.5 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$9

Realized−$47

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses12 / 17

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)29 / 31

History coverage7d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day8.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 29 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	73¢	72¢	$3	$2	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$10	+$1	+9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$40	−$3	-9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$170	+$1	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$100	+$9	+9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$51	−$6	-12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$101	−$2	-2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$1	+6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$8	+$2	+27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$10	$0	+4%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$5	+$3	+68%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$2	-37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$3	-33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17?	Jun 17	$10	+$3	+30%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$10	−$1	-9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$25	+250%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	−$9	-86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	+$1	+6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$20	+$6	+29%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$9	+$7	+76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?	SELL No	71¢	$37	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19?	SELL No	94¢	$13	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19?	SELL No	96¢	$158	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19?	SELL No	100¢	$110	1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19?	BUY No	95¢	$150	4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19?	BUY No	91¢	$100	4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19?	SELL No	72¢	$45	4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19?	SELL No	87¢	$98	4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?	BUY No	76¢	$40	6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19?	BUY No	79¢	$51	6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19?	BUY No	91¢	$20	9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19?	BUY No	88¢	$101	9h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	70¢	$90	10h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	60¢	$7	11h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	72¢	$7	11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	71¢	$11	12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?	SELL No	99¢	$10	22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18?	SELL No	99¢	$10	22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18?	BUY No	95¢	$10	26h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	71¢	$1	32h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	78¢	$1	33h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	71¢	$1	33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	7¢	$1	33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	62¢	$2	33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	9¢	$2	33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	50¢	$2	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.34 · official $9.34 (match) · 63 history records