Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x43d0…ef3e crypto 316 markets active 0h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,570 (-4%) realized −$3,570 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate69%217W / 99L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$72
14 days−$237
30 days−$2,651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$4,072
other 1% −$245
sports 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.7% -0.7% 86% 62% -12.8%
≤30d 146 -7.9% -16.7% 82% 25% -13.4%
≤90d 308 +4.0% -5.9% 70% 34% -14.0%
all 316 +1.8% -7.9% 69% 34% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 34% -14.3%
10% -16.7% 22% -22.5%
15% -24.7% 18% -30.0%
20% -32.1% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$115 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,570
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses217 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)316 / 316
History coverage194d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 316 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 06 $102 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 05 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $103 −$90 -87%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $111 +$79 +71%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $113 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 30 $111 +$40 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 29 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 29 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 29 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 28 $103 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 27 $103 +$53 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 27 $103 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 27 $103 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 27 $86 +$31 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 27 $103 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 27 $502 −$502 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 27 $500 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 27 $535 −$535 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 27 $502 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $113 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $215 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $116 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $141 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $124 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $0 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $17 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 876 history records