trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -7.2% | -16.1% | 40% | 0% | -11.9% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -6.2% | -15.2% | 45% | 0% | -11.8% |
| all | 28 | -7.2% | -16.0% | 32% | 4% | -14.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.0% | 4% | -14.9% |
| 10% | -24.1% | 4% | -23.0% |
| 15% | -31.4% | 4% | -30.5% |
| 20% | -38.1% | 4% | -37.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $28 | $28 | −$0 (-0%) |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 47¢ | 48¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $59 | −$3 | -4% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 25 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 24 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 23 | $3 | −$2 | -53% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 21 | $30 | +$2 | +7% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 20 | $15 | −$4 | -24% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 20 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 31 | $1 | $0 | -33% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Jan 31 | $30 | −$8 | -29% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 31 | $4 | −$2 | -49% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Jan 31 | $82 | −$12 | -15% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 25 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 25 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Nov 19 | $3 | +$3 | +102% |
| Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21? | Nov 19 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Oct 24 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Oct 23 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Oct 23 | $20 | −$2 | -11% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Oct 17 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar | Oct 17 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? | Oct 14 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 13 | $23 | $0 | +0% |