Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
43 0x43cf…88fa world 244 markets active 5h ago coverage 204d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 204d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,708 (-6%) realized −$17,941 · open −$767
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%132W / 94L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,271per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$11,175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 204d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1,700
other 33% +$3,644
politics 26% −$9,775
culture 2% −$183
tech 1% −$950
crypto 0% −$113
sports 0% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.9% +12.1% 36% 36% -7.9%
≤30d 44 +13.9% +3.1% 50% 32% -7.4%
≤90d 72 +16.7% +5.6% 57% 36% -5.5%
all 226 +21.2% +9.7% 58% 37% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.7% 37% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -0.8% 24% -19.3%
15% -10.4% 17% -27.1%
20% -19.2% 13% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,420) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$351 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$11,175
Realized−$17,941
Unrealized−$767
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses132 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions22
Markets (closed)226 / 244
History coverage204d ⚠
Avg bet$1,271
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $4,700 $4,625 −$75 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $1,380 $1,590 +$210 (+15%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 81¢ 88¢ $1,306 $1,417 +$111 (+9%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 76¢ $1,065 $1,132 +$67 (+6%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No 82¢ 87¢ $615 $653 +$38 (+6%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $286 $379 +$93 (+32%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 24¢ $1,005 $367 −$637 (-63%)
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 75¢ 96¢ $229 $293 +$64 (+28%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $383 $210 −$173 (-45%)
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 78¢ 94¢ $122 $146 +$24 (+20%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 61¢ 99¢ $46 $74 +$29 (+63%)
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? No 79¢ 90¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $80 $40 −$40 (-51%)
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No 76¢ 94¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+24%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $35 $28 −$8 (-21%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $69 $24 −$45 (-65%)
Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30? No 87¢ 90¢ $24 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Yes 57¢ 2¢ $517 $21 −$496 (-96%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+29%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 99¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $10 −$50 (-83%)
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30? No 80¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Scam" during the America Business Forum on November 5? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Philippines win Miss Universe 2025? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during the America Business Forum on Novemb Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during the America Business Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 22 $2,394 −$1,510 -63%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $1,522 +$370 +24%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,200 −$200 -9%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,740 +$260 +15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $236 +$138 +58%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 18 $224 +$1,948 +869%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $1,320 −$626 -47%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $160 −$140 -87%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $160 +$140 +88%
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 16 $105 +$613 +585%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $86 +$37 +43%
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 16 $127 +$52 +40%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,535 +$110 +7%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 12 $259 +$27 +10%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,127 +$96 +8%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $680 +$78 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $260 −$50 -19%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 09 $1,339 −$308 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $900 −$73 -8%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 02 $682 −$169 -25%
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Jun 01 $3,736 +$62 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $82 −$82 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $1,910 −$423 -22%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $69 +$30 +43%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? May 30 $839 +$72 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $72 −$72 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $140 −$68 -49%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $2,184 −$104 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 28 $496 +$326 +66%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $1,290 +$247 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $1,820 +$180 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $2,340 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $1,562 +$27 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $180 −$120 -67%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $890 +$200 +22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1,739 +$19 +1%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 25 $1,160 +$282 +24%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1,490 −$446 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2,555 +$318 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $560 +$20 +4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 24 $511 −$383 -75%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $430 −$255 -59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $1,076 −$33 -3%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31? May 23 $98 −$95 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $873 4h
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $171 16h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $48 41h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $43 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $568 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $142 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $142 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $64 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $88 2d
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $51 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $80 2d
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $399 2d
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $346 2d
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 2d
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $13 2d
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $5 2d
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $26 2d
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? SELL No 88¢ $4 2d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 95¢ $125 3d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 95¢ $0 3d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 95¢ $1,113 3d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 95¢ $653 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $840 3d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 95¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $55 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,175.35 · official $11,187.14 (match) · 3500 history records