Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x43cc…9211 world 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9,206 (+7%) realized +$8,046 · open +$1,160
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate90%155W / 17L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$533per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$26,251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% +$8,230
other 4% +$696
politics 3% +$274
tech 1% −$102
sports 1% +$83
crypto 0% +$17
culture 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +10.2% -0.3% 100% 27% -5.3%
≤90d 42 -15.5% -23.5% 69% 26% -17.8%
all 172 +7.7% -2.6% 90% 38% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 38% -2.5%
10% -11.9% 17% -11.8%
15% -20.4% 9% -20.3%
20% -28.2% 7% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$653) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$297 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$26,251
Realized+$8,046
Unrealized+$1,160
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses155 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions70
Markets (closed)172 / 242
History coverage321d
Avg bet$533
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,376 $3,432 +$57 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $2,474 $2,557 +$83 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $1,531 $1,633 +$101 (+7%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,598 $1,602 +$4 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $1,341 $1,495 +$154 (+12%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $1,296 $1,402 +$106 (+8%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $986 $1,009 +$22 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $657 $685 +$28 (+4%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $616 $640 +$24 (+4%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $569 $609 +$40 (+7%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $567 $581 +$15 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $522 $530 +$8 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $480 $486 +$6 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 55¢ $353 $447 +$94 (+27%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 92¢ $326 $367 +$41 (+13%)
Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $364 $362 −$2 (-1%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $297 $307 +$10 (+3%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $287 $306 +$19 (+7%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 92¢ 95¢ $285 $293 +$8 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $282 $289 +$7 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $279 $289 +$10 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 68¢ 72¢ $274 $286 +$12 (+4%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No 86¢ 93¢ $258 $279 +$21 (+8%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 74¢ 89¢ $231 $278 +$47 (+20%)
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $255 $254 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $31 +$9 +28%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 +$13 +37%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? Jun 01 $81 +$4 +5%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 01 $82 +$12 +15%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31? Jun 01 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Jun 01 $146 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? Jun 01 $256 +$19 +8%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $285 +$6 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $979 +$21 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 23 $186 +$14 +8%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31? May 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? May 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30? May 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30? May 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31? May 18 $151 −$151 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? May 18 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? May 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? May 18 $238 −$238 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 18 $460 −$460 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 18 $572 −$572 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 18 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? May 03 $86 +$8 +10%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t May 03 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? May 03 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? May 03 $285 +$15 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 03 $480 +$20 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? Apr 03 $115 +$62 +54%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $156 +$45 +29%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Apr 03 $120 +$335 +278%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $400 +$100 +25%
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31? Apr 03 $981 +$5 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31? Apr 03 $1,213 +$38 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $1,218 +$82 +7%
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Mar 20 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28? Mar 20 $107 +$16 +15%
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? Mar 20 $167 +$5 +3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Mar 20 $317 +$55 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? Mar 20 $552 +$226 +41%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Feb 21 $92 +$8 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 21 $264 +$36 +14%
Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025? Jan 23 $58 +$2 +4%
US forces in Iran in 2025? Jan 23 $92 +$8 +9%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jan 23 $91 +$9 +10%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Jan 23 $87 +$13 +15%
GTA VI released in 2025? Jan 23 $95 +$5 +5%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 23 $93 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $637 1h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $586 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $225 1h
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,038 1h
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $83 11d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $136 11d
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $184 11d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $17 13d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $40 13d
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $124 13d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $186 13d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? BUY No 95¢ $137 13d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $3 16d
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $84 16d
Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $11 16d
Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $41 16d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $125 16d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $143 16d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $583 16d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $159 18d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $180 18d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $48 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $143 18d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $63 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $140 18d
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $21 21d
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $26 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,251.44 · official $26,248.83 (match) · 890 history records