Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43cb…4bcc sports 753 markets active 2h ago coverage 287d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 286d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$78,246 (-15%) realized −$78,316 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%288W / 456L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$671per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$449est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$319
14 days+$524
30 days−$1,007
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$27,628
sports 21% +$5,976
crypto 14% −$758
world 5% −$10,765
economics 4% −$14,349
politics 1% −$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +35.5% +22.6% 62% 62% +8.4%
≤30d 19 -14.5% -22.6% 42% 42% -31.1%
≤90d 217 +1.2% -8.4% 42% 41% -17.5%
all 744 +0.7% -8.9% 39% 38% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 38% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 38% -26.0%
15% -25.6% 37% -33.1%
20% -32.9% 35% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$655) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$903 vs −$676 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized−$78,316
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses288 / 456
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$449
Open positions2
Markets (closed)744 / 753
History coverage287d ⚠
Avg bet$671
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 744 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $159 $231 +$72 (+45%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$68 +67%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $301 +$681 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$80 +77%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 25 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $328 −$314 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9AM ET Jun 04 $104 +$126 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9AM ET Jun 04 $534 +$99 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET Jun 04 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8PM ET Jun 04 $104 −$96 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8PM ET Jun 02 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7PM ET Jun 02 $420 −$405 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $551 −$541 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET May 22 $205 +$104 +51%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $295 +$154 +52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $510 −$500 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $508 −$500 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $304 −$298 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $756 +$258 +34%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 18 $203 +$127 +63%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $102 +$115 +113%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$45 +44%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? May 17 $204 −$107 -52%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $508 +$556 +109%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 15 $738 +$293 +40%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $618 +$120 +19%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $164 +$454 +276%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1,227 −$1,200 -98%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $103 +$99 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET May 14 $829 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8AM ET May 14 $291 −$284 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7AM ET May 14 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6AM ET May 14 $314 +$482 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5AM ET May 14 $207 +$163 +79%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5 May 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5 May 14 $203 +$189 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $509 +$773 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4AM ET May 14 $838 −$800 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3AM ET May 14 $308 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2AM ET May 14 $320 −$315 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $7,046 −$6,932 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $102 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $203 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $301 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY 5¢ $100 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 19¢ $25 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 18¢ $283 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $405 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 25¢ $100 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-1 BUY 8¢ $103 13d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 202 BUY 9¢ $103 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 21¢ $102 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 9¢ $103 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $163 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $102 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $8 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $86 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $535 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.44 · official $329.44 (match) · 3500 history records