Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x43ca…0468 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+6%) realized +$70 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$72
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$91
sports 12% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +19.5% +8.1% 46% 46% +1.7%
≤30d 50 +4.4% -5.6% 42% 40% -7.1%
≤90d 50 +4.4% -5.6% 42% 40% -7.1%
all 50 +4.4% -5.6% 42% 40% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 40% -7.1%
10% -14.6% 40% -16.0%
15% -22.8% 38% -24.1%
20% -30.4% 30% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$14 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage12d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$26 +510%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$37 +712%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$62 +152%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 41h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 41h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.71 · official $151.71 (match) · 80 history records