Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43ca…ba5c world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
politics 19% $0
other 17% −$1
sports 13% −$13
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 32 +98.8% +79.8% 34% 12% -10.3%
≤90d 79 +39.9% +26.5% 28% 6% -9.9%
all 80 +38.1% +25.0% 28% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.0% 6% -10.3%
10% +13.0% 4% -18.9%
15% +2.1% 4% -26.7%
20% -7.9% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 58
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage490d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $19 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $82 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $65 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $76 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $83 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $32 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $48 −$8 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $67 −$4 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $43 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $56 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $3 $0 -11%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $77 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $25 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $32 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $3 36h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $1 38h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $3 38h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 5¢ $7 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $36 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $13 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $16 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $11 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $21 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $32 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $20 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records