Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43c9…587b other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%21W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$4
other 30% $0
politics 10% $0
crypto 9% −$3
tech 6% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.7% +2.8% 100% 33% -4.2%
≤30d 10 -5.8% -14.7% 50% 10% -7.6%
≤90d 10 -5.8% -14.7% 50% 10% -7.6%
all 57 -5.1% -14.2% 37% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 2% -9.4%
10% -22.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses21 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage450d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $39 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $39 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $13 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $1 $0 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 +1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 08 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 04 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 22 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 20 $1 $0 -10%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $11 −$1 -6%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 9? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? May 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 30 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $9 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $44 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $41 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 39h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $39 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $39 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $13 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $13 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $36 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $34 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $1 25d
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1 360d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș? BUY Yes $0 367d
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13? SELL No 98¢ $9 375d
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13? BUY No 98¢ $9 375d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records