Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43c6…6dc9 sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$96 (+2%) realized +$87 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$9
14 days−$17
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$150
other 15% −$45
world 1% −$20
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.9% -17.5% 41% 33% -9.1%
≤30d 84 -0.8% -10.2% 46% 43% -8.4%
≤90d 84 -0.8% -10.2% 46% 43% -8.4%
all 84 -0.8% -10.2% 46% 43% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 43% -8.4%
10% -18.8% 32% -17.1%
15% -26.7% 27% -25.1%
20% -33.9% 19% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 45
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage19d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 42¢ 62¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $165 +$22 +13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$20 -65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $13 +$3 +24%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$16 -78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $136 +$16 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $26 +$55 +216%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $40 −$14 -34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $30 −$6 -20%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$10 -48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $73 +$27 +37%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $42 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $84 +$39 +46%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $99 −$4 -4%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $137 +$12 +9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$16 +13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$20 -49%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $104 −$3 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$16 -23%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $104 +$57 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $74 −$74 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $94 −$19 -21%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $118 −$24 -20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $28 −$20 -71%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $76 −$16 -21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $55 +$13 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$12 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$20 +100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 +$20 +51%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $257 −$66 -26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$26 +128%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $150 −$54 -36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $111 +$17 +15%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $30 −$26 -89%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$24 +119%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $58 −$19 -32%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 +$34 +115%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $100 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 37m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $186 38m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $165 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $36 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 8¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 2¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 5¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $15 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $10 21h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 14¢ $4 21h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 61¢ $5 25h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 61¢ $15 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $136 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Australia 44¢ $27 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 26¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 42¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 9¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 58¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.29 · official $29.29 (match) · 264 history records