Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
43 0x43c6…2249 crypto 425 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 159d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$181 (-2%) realized −$181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%150W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$163
sports 3% +$5
other 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 213 -58.3% -62.3% 31% 0% -10.4%
all 422 -29.9% -36.6% 36% 7% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 7% -11.5%
10% -42.7% 3% -19.9%
15% -48.2% 2% -27.7%
20% -53.3% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses150 / 272
Open positions3
Markets (closed)422 / 425
History coverage159d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 26 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.58 · official $19.58 (match) · 3500 history records