Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43c6…e2c5
crypto · 113 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,284 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,286 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$6,286
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses71 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage208d
Avg bet$470
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 1 History 112 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$23
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 88¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1,366 $0 −$1,366 (-100%)
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1,683 $0 −$1,683 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $2,224 $0 −$2,224 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$21 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $81 −$60 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$9 +42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,947 +$16 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 08 $4,166 +$26 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 07 $642 +$3 +0%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 04 $672 $0 -0%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 03 $925 +$13 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 03 $492 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 03 $66 +$3 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 03 $23 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 02 $304 +$12 +4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $997 −$341 -34%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 23 $1,683 −$1,683 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 23 $2,224 −$2,224 -100%
Team USA Stars vs. Team USA Stripes Feb 15 $1,019 −$40 -4%
Jazz vs. Pacers Feb 04 $2,020 −$20 -1%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $1,366 −$1,366 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers Feb 03 $3,987 −$40 -1%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 20 $3,804 −$38 -1%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jan 08 $217 +$2 +1%
Bulls vs. Celtics Jan 06 $382 −$12 -3%
Hornets vs. Thunder Jan 06 $1,010 −$10 -1%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 06 $1,212 −$12 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$577
other 17% −$5,518
tech 16% +$101
crypto 3% −$242
politics 3% +$24
world 2% +$15
culture 0% −$97
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $41 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +1.2% -8.4% 88% 41% -9.3%
≤30d 38 +1.3% -8.4% 87% 34% -9.1%
≤90d 39 +0.4% -9.2% 85% 33% -11.8%
all 112 -8.1% -16.9% 63% 13% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 13% -20.2%
10% -24.8% 6% -27.9%
15% -32.1% 2% -34.8%
20% -38.8% 1% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.89 · official $20.76 · 471 history records