Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

43 0x43c5…74c6 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$214 (+2%) realized +$376 · open −$162

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate74%14W / 5L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$377per market

Trades / day6.9pace

Fees−$34est.

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-5.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+4.7%	-5.3%	74%	58%	-7.3%
≤30d	19	+4.7%	-5.3%	74%	58%	-7.3%
≤90d	19	+4.7%	-5.3%	74%	58%	-7.3%
all	19	+4.7%	-5.3%	74%	58%	-7.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.3%	58%	-7.3%
10%	-14.3%	26%	-16.2%
15%	-22.6%	21%	-24.3%
20%	-30.2%	21%	-31.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 33% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

21% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$802) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -2% → late +10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$70 vs −$159 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.24 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$413

Realized+$376

Unrealized−$162

Win rate (resolved)74%

Wins / losses14 / 5

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$34

Open positions4

Markets (closed)19 / 23

History coverage5d

Avg bet$377

Trades / day6.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$175	$132	−$44 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$106	+$6 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	No	51¢	20¢	$200	$76	−$124 (-62%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$6	+107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$5	+18%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$703	+$93	+13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$803	+$116	+14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$823	+$109	+13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$802	+$56	+7%
Solana Up or Down on June 16?	Jun 16	$11	−$10	-94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$803	+$96	+12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$739	+$80	+11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$682	+$58	+8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$602	+$58	+10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 15	$990	−$775	-78%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$102	+$61	+60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$352	+$210	+60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$352	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$132	+$32	+24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$5	+$6	+109%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	51¢	$203	28m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	51¢	$228	29m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	38m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	38m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	22¢	$20	39m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	24¢	$31	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	42¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$11	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$5	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	SELL Down	81¢	$30	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$26	14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	88¢	$703	16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	87¢	$803	19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	88¢	$823	22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$858	22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	93¢	$802	22h
Solana Up or Down on June 16?	BUY Up	14¢	$11	31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	89¢	$803	43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$819	43h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	90¢	$739	44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	92¢	$682	47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	91¢	$602	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	53¢	$163	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	32¢	$102	2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	48¢	$100	2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	70¢	$252	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	28¢	$101	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	57¢	$252	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	10¢	$3	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.42 · official $413.42 (match) · 50 history records