Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x43c2…9a3b other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 441d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+10%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 42% +$1
finance 7% $0
politics 4% +$59
tech 4% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.7%
all 31 +35.0% +22.1% 55% 3% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.1% 3% +1.0%
10% +10.4% 3% -8.7%
15% -0.2% 3% -17.5%
20% -10.0% 3% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +68% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×17.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×36.35 per $1 lost it wins $36.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

441d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage441d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $10 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $35 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Dec 11 $6 +$59 +1076%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $9 $0 +2%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $12 $0 +1%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 27 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 24 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 23 $8 $0 -1%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 08 $2 $0 -14%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 03 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $10 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $36 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 15h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $22 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $4 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $32 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $6 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $30 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $4 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $34 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $38 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $35 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $9 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $9 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $17 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 22¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.40 · official $34.39 (match) · 99 history records