Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43c2…0ae3 crypto 1225 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (219 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,355 (-6%) realized −$1,355 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate62%759W / 466L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day218.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$288
7 days−$830
14 days−$1,028
30 days−$1,028
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,028
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (219 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 681 -13.8% -22.0% 57% 34% -14.5%
≤30d 1225 -9.8% -18.4% 62% 37% -13.4%
≤90d 1225 -9.8% -18.4% 62% 37% -13.4%
all 1225 -9.8% -18.4% 62% 37% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover218.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 37% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 23% -21.7%
15% -33.3% 15% -29.3%
20% -39.9% 8% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,355
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses759 / 466
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1225 / 1225
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day218.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1225 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$14 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records